Sports Betting Strategy
This could be the most important article you’ve ever read! We purposely included no banners or sportsbook plugs here in hopes you read this in its entirety.
Those outside the sports betting industry, non gamblers, generally regard sport betting as a game of chance where the house always has the edge and therefore gamblers are going to lose long term. Under these circumstances one would consider anyone who bets on a consistent basis either lucky or a degenerate, depending on whether they’re winning or losing. Well this article here is designed to put that rumor to rest, or at least attempt to do so.
The bottom line is: Through years of sports betting experience, I’ve yet to find any sport that cannot be beaten. We can argue all day long on which sport is easiest to beat: NFL, College, Half Times, Props, Golf etc. However, we’ll save that for a further discussion. I’ve yet to find a sport that cannot be beaten; even minor sports such as darts, or floor ball have plus EV betting options days.
What is PlusEV? This means positive expectation. All bets made have an expected outcome. Let’s say we flip and ordinary coin to see if it comes out heads or tails, assume this flip is entirely random and not done by some physics guru or magician. Well there is a 50 percent chance the coin will land heads and a 50 percent chance it will land tales. Let’s say we were to bet over and over again, you paying me a dollar for every heads outcome and me paying you a dollar for every tails outcome. Well over time we’d break even. Our positive expected value is considered neutral or even. Let’s say though I decided I’d pay you $1.02 for every heads outcome and you’d pay me $1.00 for every tails outcome. Well in this case half the time I’d lose $1.02 and half the time I’d win $1.00. On average I am going to lose 1 cent (or one percent) every time we flip the coin. In such an example I have –EV (negative expected value) of 1 cent (or 1%) per flip of the coin, while you have +EV (positive expected value) of 1 cent (or 1%) per flip of the coin.
The way sports betting works. If you bet at random, you’re generally always going to be betting at negative expected value (-EV) because sportsbook charge juice. For example, generally you’ll have the option of betting one team or their opponent at -110. This means you’ll need to risk $1.10 for the opportunity to win $1.00. Assuming the odds are 50/50 on the outcome your expected value is negative 5 cents for every dollar wagered, because half the time you’ll lose $1.10 and half the time you win $1.00 therefore on average you lose 5 cents every time you make a bet.
How to Find +EV Bets
This is information that most sports bettors are not going to give away. In fact, if you’re getting advice on a web page, forum etc, assume most often it is coming from a losing gambler. The true winners have no incentive to give this information in a spelled out format, because the more others know, the less +EV wagering opportunities there are for them to find.
With that said: do not worry, we will give you some hints on how you can learn sports betting well enough to make a profit by finding +EV bets. We’ll spell that out for you right here, most people will ignore this info, skipping steps.
Step #1 is to understand why +EV wagers are available. We touch on that in several articles contained in our site. For an example, read our page on betting UFC online.
Step #2 is to understand the importance of choosing the right line up of sportsbooks. You should read our page which sportsbook in full detail before proceeding further.
(optional) Step 2a – A wealth of information is contained hidden within text on various pages of our site – while it’s not required we do suggest reading all the pages linked on our top menu and left sidebar menu. Little tidbits of info will jump out at you, plus it will give you an idea of how betting on each sport works.
Step #3 Read the Pooh Bah post made on 2+2 Sports betting forum by Tech (Click here).
Step #4 Read Sharp Sports Betting by Standard Wong. This is a must read for any NFL bettor.
Step #5 Become active on sports betting forums such as 2+2, Covers, SBR, TheRx etc. Know that most of the posters on these forums are losing degenerate bettors passing themselves off as winning players. They share advice because it makes them feel better about losing. Also know that many (but not all) sports betting forums are owned by greedy money seeking whores, so do not trust their ads, offers and recommendations for various sportsbooks; these sites are getting paid big money to give their so called recommendations.
Disclaimer: We’ve been honest with you to this point so far, so we’ll tell you the same is true about us. We are compensated for the sportsbook ads on our website in some shape or form. Do your own research and decide for yourself. Remember a rule of profitable sports betting is to research everything, don’t openly trust anyone, and take all advice and recommendations with a grain of salt.
If you spend the time following these steps, before long you’ll be finding +EV wagers. I suggest every so often going back and reading Tech’s Pooh Bah post at 2+2.
As you start to gain more knowledge on +EV betting, it’s important to guard what you know. Don’t give out info for nothing. You can be popular or you can be rich; the choice is up to you. We do ask and hope you’ll choose to be rich and not ruin it for the rest of us who do not want to openly hand out info in a spelled out format on how to “bang the book” so to speak.
When you do have knowledge, staying active on forums will help you to make friends, and in time you’ll start to see who is legit. A reason this could be important is because perhaps you’ll eventually specialize in one sport and can trade details and picks in private with someone who specializes in another.
As you’ll notice, there are no banner ads on this page. The info we shared here is at face value. If you find it helpful, we ask you remember us in the future when you’re joining an online sportsbook. Doing so through the reviews we link to on the right side menu or our website would be a great way to say thanks to us for this information.
Best of luck on your journey to learn: how to beat sports betting for a consistent profit.